TORONTO -- In a clumsy mix-up of Health Canada's figures, a November 30th article in The Globe and Mail wrongly reported a recent increase in AIDS amongst gay men. The Globe then cast the blame on gay men for allegedly "returning to the risky sexual behavior that marked the first devastating years of the epidemic."

It is clear from the numbers and graph in The Globe and Mail article that estimates of all AIDS cases in Canada were mistakenly attributed to men having sex with men (MSM). The Globe reported "that the incidence of AIDS attributable to men having sex with men jumped in the year 2000 to 664 individuals, up about 14 per cent from the 584 who were diagnosed in 1999." A close look at Health Canada's HIV/AIDS surveillance report for the year 2000 reveals that the Globe quoted estimates from Figure 2 and Table 8 reporting the total number of Canadian AIDS cases. The figures for MSM are found in Table 12C: 124 AIDS cases reported in 2000, down from 165 reported the previous year.

The Globe and Mail's incompetence aside, it also seems reasonable to question whether there is any real overall increase in AIDS cases in Canada. Health Canada's new practice of reporting numbers of AIDS cases "adjusted for reporting delay" produces statistics that are highly speculative. For instance, in this year's HIV/AIDS surveillance report 261 AIDS cases were reported by March 2, 2001 for the year 2000. In a separate column in Table 8 the figures 644 is given as the number of AIDS cases "adjusted for reporting delay". This suggests that two months in to 2001 60% of the AIDS cases diagnosed in the year 2000 have still not been reported to Health Canada.

If the government or media wishes to portray a new rise in AIDS cases last year they have only these highly speculative statistics to support it. The reported increase in AIDS cases from 584 in 1999 to 644 in 2000 are those dubious numbers "adjusted for reporting delay". Looking back a year at Health Canada's HIV/AIDS surveillance report for 1999, we see that the 584 figure was originally 701. If the year 2000 figure of 644 is readjusted downward by the same percentage in next year's surveillance report it will be well below 584 and the speculative rise in AIDS cases from 1999 to 2000 will have evaporated.

The Globe and Mail's spin on their muddled statistics also follows a faulty logic. HIV is believed to be a slow virus causing AIDS on average 10 or more years after infection. In the study the Globe cited, the authors remind us "that new reported AIDS cases reflect HIV infections that occurred years earlier." Therefore it is unlikely that a recent relaxation of safe sex practices among gay men would be responsible for a new increase in reported AIDS cases - even if either were a true.

As the report in the Canadian Journal on Human Sexuality (9(4),219-235) makes clear, claims that HIV infections are on the rise among gay men are based on limited surveillance data that remains highly speculative. Commenting on what we might conclude from such limited data, University of Toronto HIV researcher Dr. Robert Remis has said, "It's hard to know. We're basing it on a certain amount of estimation. You're sort of guessing, really." (eye 21/06/01)

Any claims that gay men are not as diligent about safe sex as they used to be should also be viewed with skepticism. The latest study that actually examined trends in unprotected anal sex among MSM found no significant increase in risky sexual behaviour over time (Clemon et al., 2001). The studies that HIV researchers like to quote as evidence of increasing unsafe sex are typically uncontrolled surveys of gay men at bars and bath houses. If gay men are more candid about occasional risk-taking it may be that the new discourse around "barebacking" has loosened taboos on this subject. Occasional unprotected sex has probably always been the reality for many gay men.